TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 3, 159-204 (1972)
Delphi Conferencing: Computer-Based
Conferencing with Anonymity
159
MURRAY TUROFF
Abstract
This paper is a report on an on-line (computer-automated) conference that was conducted for thirteen
weeks in the spring of 1970. The conference involved twenty individuals throughout the country who
were able to engage in the conference discussion at their convenience by going to a computer terminal
at their time of choice. The computer maintained a real-time accounting of the discussion items entered
by the various respondents and of how the group had voted on these items with respect to scales of
desirability and feasibility (for proposals), or importance and confidence (for comments).
The purpose of the conference was to evaluate potential applications of this type of conference
system and to critique the author's design of the particular system in use. During the first part of the
conference, no conferee was aware of the identity of the other conference members. In addition, the
computer did not provide to the conferees the identification of originators of the items or of individual
votes. Because of this anonymity, such systems may be referred to as "Delphi Conferencing Systems."
The conference group was deliberately chosen by the author to be a mixture of Delphi designers,
computer specialists, and operations research analysts. The group was also evenly divided as to
affiliation with government, industry, nonprofit organizations, and universities. About one-third of
the group had no previous experience with computers or terminals. Another third had only minimal
contact as users of computer services provided by others.
"It takes two of us to create a truth, one to utter it and one to understand it."--Gibran.

III.B. 1. The Policy Delphi
MURRAY TUROFF
A Seer upon perceiving a flood should be the first to climb a tree.
—Kahlil Gibran
Introduction

Murray Turoff, "The Design of a Policy Delphi," Technological Forecasting and
Social Change 2, No. 2 (1970).

Introduction
The Policy Delphi was first introduced in 1969 and reported on in 1970.' It
represented a significant departure from the understanding and application of the
Delphi technique as practiced to that point in time. Delphi as it originally was
introduced and practiced tended to deal with technical topics and seek a consensus
among homogeneous groups of experts. The Policy Delphi, on the other hand,
seeks to generate the strongest possible opposing views on the potential
resolutions of a major policy issue. In the author's view, a policy issue is one for
which there are no experts, only informed advocates and referees.

(paper published also in the Delphi Method Book, linstone and turoff)